ML Analysis — PARKWOOD HOSPITAL
CCN 254005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.3%, 11.3%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 243709.611 | -0.1864 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 223608.120 | +0.1766 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.330 | -0.0292 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 131561.150 | -0.0246 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
56.1%
Distress Risk
$441K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
9.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P15. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.330 | +0.241 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 243709.611 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.163 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.540 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 108.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.371 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $441K
Current margin: 8.2%
Projected margin: 9.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 25
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.507 | 0.537 | 2.9% | $441K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P31 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |