ML Analysis — SSH - BELHAVEN
CCN 252003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.8%, 17.8%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 551070.722 | -0.1435 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 534988.083 | +0.1382 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.052 | +0.0430 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.122 | -0.0276 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
12.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.861 | -0.312 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.575 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.122 | -0.110 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 551070.722 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 36.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.8M
Current margin: 2.9%
Projected margin: 12.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 67
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.122 | 0.569 | 44.7% | $1.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.425 | 0.478 | 5.3% | $802K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |