ML Analysis — CHOCTAW REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 251334 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.7%, 15.9%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.708 | -0.0387 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1366217.133 | -0.0297 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.594 | +0.0253 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.116 | +0.0245 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 29%Low turnaround probability (29%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
55.4%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
11.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P44. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.358 | +0.155 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.594 | +0.101 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.802 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 15.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1366217.133 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: -12.5%
Projected margin: 11.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 43
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.196 | 0.454 | 25.9% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.358 | 0.492 | 13.4% | $886K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.594 | 0.624 | 3.0% | $71K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P75 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |