ML Analysis — UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL & CLINICS - HOLM
CCN 251319 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside9/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-46.1%, 10.5%]. P23 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 586160.360 | +0.1319 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 645056.320 | -0.1304 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.307 | -0.0305 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.610 | +0.0271 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
60.4%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
23.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P69. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.164 | +0.335 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.610 | +0.108 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.031 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 645056.320 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.466 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: 9.1%
Projected margin: 23.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 69
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.164 | 0.507 | 34.3% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P49 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |