ML Analysis — TALLAHATCHIE CRITICAL ACCESS HOSPITA
CCN 251304 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.1%, 27.5%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.009 | +0.0553 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.799 | +0.0483 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Commercial % | 0.011 | -0.0233 | Lower Commercial % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 48%Turnaround possible (48%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving State Peer Margin.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.7%
Distress Risk
$6.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
15.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P96. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.799 | +0.192 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.988 | +0.113 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.584 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1718941.556 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.8M
Current margin: -6.7%
Projected margin: 15.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 51
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.011 | 0.466 | 45.4% | $6.8M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P66 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |