ML Analysis — MERIT HEALTH WOMANS HOSPITAL
CCN 250136 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.4%, 11.2%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 838796.353 | +0.1008 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 869604.294 | -0.0991 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.084 | +0.0337 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.114 | -0.0285 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
53.9%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
12.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P61. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.258 | +0.169 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.356 | +0.157 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.114 | -0.113 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 869604.294 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 34.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: 3.5%
Projected margin: 12.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 68
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.114 | 0.576 | 46.2% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.356 | 0.528 | 17.2% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P71 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P7 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |