ML Analysis — BAPTIST MEM HOSPITAL GOLDEN TRIANGLE
CCN 250100 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.8%, 19.8%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1335987.084 | +0.0396 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.112 | +0.0258 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1435581.604 | -0.0201 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.226 | -0.0160 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.6%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P8. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.226 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.066 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.439 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.537 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1435581.604 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 154.000 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: 6.9%
Projected margin: 8.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 29
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.226 | 0.305 | 8.0% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.495 | 0.538 | 4.2% | $634K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.537 | 0.551 | 1.4% | $90K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P30 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |