ML Analysis — OKTIBBEHA COUNTY HOSPITAL
CCN 250050 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-19.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.3%, 9.3%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 718347.079 | -0.1202 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 836623.011 | +0.1011 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.306 | -0.0263 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.116 | +0.0247 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 21%Low turnaround probability (21%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
61.0%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-9.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P50. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.271 | +0.236 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.306 | +0.217 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 718347.080 | +0.051 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.317 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 88.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.329 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -16.5%
Projected margin: -9.7%
Grade: C
Comps: 36
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.365 | 0.522 | 15.8% | $2.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.271 | 0.543 | 27.1% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.317 | 0.332 | 1.4% | $105K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P61 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |