ML Analysis — UNIVERSITY OF MISSISSIPPI MEDICAL
CCN 250001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.6%, 12.0%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 745.000 | -0.0930 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.125 | -0.0591 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.613 | +0.0520 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.387 | -0.0361 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1462516.350 | +0.0240 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Bed Count and State Peer Margin.
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
50.4%
Distress Risk
$11.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P83. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MS distress rate: 68.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.387 | +0.298 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.816 | -0.270 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 745.000 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.266 | -0.046 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.168 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1419854.821 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $11.4M
Current margin: -3.0%
Projected margin: -1.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 475
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.266 | 0.319 | 5.3% | $6.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.444 | 0.757 | 31.3% | $4.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.816 | 0.829 | 1.3% | $84K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |