ML Analysis — CHILDRENS HEALTH CARE
CCN 243302 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.0%, 23.6%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2413858.743 | +0.1165 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2489573.890 | -0.1025 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.604 | -0.0623 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 400.000 | -0.0392 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.992 | +0.0376 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
56.7%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P88. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.604 | +0.515 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.727 | -0.187 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2413858.743 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.462 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 400.000 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: -3.1%
Projected margin: -2.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 12
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.395 | 0.704 | 30.9% | $4.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.727 | 0.791 | 6.5% | $427K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |