ML Analysis — COMMUNITY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 241364 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.5%, 24.1%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3009616.227 | +0.1997 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3260341.818 | -0.1975 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.091 | -0.0298 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 22.000 | +0.0198 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1317784.640 | +0.0148 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
49.4%
Distress Risk
$3.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P62. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3009616.227 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.438 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.044 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.455 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.507 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 22.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.9M
Current margin: -8.3%
Projected margin: -2.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 93
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.450 | 0.610 | 16.1% | $2.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.455 | 0.632 | 17.8% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.438 | 0.448 | 1.0% | $64K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P59 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |