ML Analysis — SANFORD BEMIDJI
CCN 240100 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
62
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -19.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.0%, 22.6%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3978301.692 | -0.2859 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3325381.308 | +0.2437 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1921180.656 | +0.0348 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.280 | -0.0231 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.138 | +0.0182 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
50.5%
Distress Risk
$8.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-17.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P62. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.280 | +0.191 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3325381.309 | -0.103 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.578 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.387 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 94.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.363 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.1M
Current margin: -19.6%
Projected margin: -17.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 23
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.357 | 0.722 | 36.5% | $5.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.387 | 0.430 | 4.3% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.578 | 0.733 | 15.5% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |