ML Analysis — MAYO CLINIC HOSPITAL ROCHESTER
CCN 240010 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
71
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health23/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 11.0x – 13.0x
Est. MOIC: 2.8x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
6.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 31.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-21.8%, 34.8%]. P76 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2977869.071 | +0.1952 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 1157.000 | -0.1573 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 7.054 | +0.0622 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2335381.061 | +0.0485 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 2030586.157 | -0.0460 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
47.1%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
31.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P88. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.784 | -0.240 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 1157.000 | +0.135 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2977869.071 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.143 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.471 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.333 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: 31.8%
Projected margin: 31.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 189
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.524 | 0.758 | 23.4% | $3.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.784 | 0.871 | 8.6% | $571K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |