ML Analysis — OLMSTED MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 240006 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.9%, 18.8%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 4054735.803 | -0.2954 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3567787.410 | +0.2776 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.351 | -0.0431 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 61.000 | +0.0137 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.317 | -0.0118 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
50.8%
Distress Risk
$1.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-12.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P76. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.317 | +0.193 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3567787.410 | -0.117 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.457 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.155 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.076 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 61.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.7M
Current margin: -13.7%
Projected margin: -12.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 28
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.317 | 0.576 | 25.9% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P39 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |