ML Analysis — HAVENWYCK HOSPITAL
CCN 234023 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 22.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.0%, 18.6%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 348302.953 | -0.1718 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 270590.221 | +0.1708 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.687 | -0.1397 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.727 | +0.0402 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.614 | +0.0318 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
22.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.844 | -0.296 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.055 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.727 | +0.160 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 348302.953 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 213.000 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: 22.3%
Projected margin: 22.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |