ML Analysis — PIONEER SPECIALTY HOSPITAL
CCN 232039 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.5%, 15.1%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 218919.095 | -0.1899 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 207157.810 | +0.1786 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.395 | -0.0557 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 64833.183 | -0.0268 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.595 | +0.0253 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
28.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.296 | +0.213 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.336 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.595 | +0.101 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 218919.095 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 42.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.1M
Current margin: 5.4%
Projected margin: 28.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 74
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.296 | 0.554 | 25.8% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.664 | 0.692 | 2.8% | $421K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |