ML Analysis — BARAGA COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 231307 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -10.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.8%, 16.8%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1014271.417 | -0.0789 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1121015.542 | +0.0661 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.178 | -0.0278 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.597 | +0.0256 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.289 | -0.0253 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 31%Turnaround possible (31%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.7%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
8.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P10. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.282 | +0.226 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.597 | +0.102 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.009 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1014271.417 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.506 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: -10.5%
Projected margin: 8.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 67
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.485 | 0.691 | 20.6% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.282 | 0.519 | 23.7% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P57 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |