ML Analysis — CHELSEA HOSPITAL
CCN 230259 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.9%, 25.7%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2377667.025 | +0.1114 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2402708.430 | -0.0918 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.268 | -0.0113 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 79.000 | +0.0109 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.012 | +0.0093 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 45%Turnaround possible (45%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.2%
Distress Risk
$5.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P2. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.012 | -0.077 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.471 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2377667.025 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.268 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 79.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.350 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.5M
Current margin: -1.1%
Projected margin: 1.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.268 | 0.396 | 12.8% | $2.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.471 | 0.694 | 22.3% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.638 | 0.720 | 8.2% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |