ML Analysis — MARTHAS VINEYARD HOSPITAL
CCN 221300 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health14/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-25.6%, 31.0%]. P69 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4863959.640 | +0.4585 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4707938.800 | -0.3758 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2258476.383 | +0.0460 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
50.4%
Distress Risk
$9.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
11.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P96. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 4863959.640 | -0.194 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.533 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.159 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.464 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.636 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.8M
Current margin: 3.2%
Projected margin: 11.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 11
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.205 | 0.620 | 41.5% | $6.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.464 | 0.860 | 39.6% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.533 | 0.601 | 6.8% | $961K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |