ML Analysis — NEW ENGLAND BAPTIST HOSPITAL
CCN 220088 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.3%, 19.3%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2949546.613 | +0.1913 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3084013.387 | -0.1758 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.295 | -0.0268 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.566 | +0.0221 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.358 | +0.155 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.479 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.566 | +0.088 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2949546.613 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 75.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.3M
Current margin: -4.6%
Projected margin: -1.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 48
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.358 | 0.855 | 49.6% | $3.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.521 | 0.735 | 21.4% | $3.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.566 | 0.598 | 3.2% | $829K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |