ML Analysis — MASSACHUSETTS EYE AND EAR INFIRMARY
CCN 220075 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-30.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -36.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-58.4%, -1.8%]. P12 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 8761996.707 | -0.8752 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 6436228.683 | +0.6780 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1982693.901 | +0.0368 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.273 | -0.0204 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 11%Low turnaround probability (11%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
47.0%
Distress Risk
$8.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-32.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P98. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 6436228.683 | -0.287 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.308 | +0.202 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.449 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.061 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 41.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.331 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.9M
Current margin: -36.1%
Projected margin: -32.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 21
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.449 | 0.601 | 15.3% | $4.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.308 | 0.890 | 58.2% | $3.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.608 | 0.633 | 2.5% | $377K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P69 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |