ML Analysis — BROOK LANE PSYCHIATRIC CENTER
CCN 214003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.9%, 16.7%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 408747.139 | -0.1634 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 407250.000 | +0.1540 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.533 | -0.0538 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.832 | +0.0519 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.339 | -0.0396 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
60.6%
Distress Risk
$6.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
23.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P23. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.533 | +0.444 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.832 | +0.206 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.746 | -0.205 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 408747.138 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.059 | -0.046 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 65.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.1M
Current margin: 0.4%
Projected margin: 23.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 17
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.408 | 0.757 | 34.9% | $5.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.746 | 0.859 | 11.2% | $740K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.832 | 0.863 | 3.1% | $98K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |