ML Analysis — ATLANTIC GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 210061 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.4%, 23.2%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2684239.323 | -0.1265 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2397055.790 | +0.1142 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.693 | +0.0363 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.084 | -0.0281 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.270 | -0.0198 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
51.0%
Distress Risk
$10.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-4.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P54. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.693 | +0.144 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.018 | -0.071 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2397055.790 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.592 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 62.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.515 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.7M
Current margin: -12.0%
Projected margin: -4.8%
Grade: C
Comps: 17
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.390 | 0.757 | 36.7% | $5.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.693 | 0.863 | 17.1% | $3.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.515 | 0.859 | 34.4% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P34 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |