ML Analysis — CALVERT MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 210039 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
62
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.6%, 27.0%]. P59 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross | 0.828 | +0.0515 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2061192.103 | -0.0498 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1922650.859 | +0.0479 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.367 | -0.0478 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.635 | +0.0335 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Turnaround: 48%Turnaround possible (48%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Net-to-Gross.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.3%
Distress Risk
$4.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-4.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P64. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.767 | -0.225 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.828 | +0.205 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.484 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1922650.859 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.072 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 78.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.4M
Current margin: -7.2%
Projected margin: -4.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 20
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.444 | 0.686 | 24.2% | $3.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.828 | 0.859 | 3.0% | $529K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.767 | 0.808 | 4.1% | $269K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |