ML Analysis — COMPASS SENIOR CARE HOSPITAL LLC
CCN 194082 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.2%, 23.4%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 245628.278 | -0.1862 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 214301.139 | +0.1777 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.669 | +0.0337 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.321 | -0.0281 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.110 | +0.0264 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
58.7%
Distress Risk
$9.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
119.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P78. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.321 | +0.232 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.670 | +0.134 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.617 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 245628.278 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.515 | +0.032 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 36.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.4M
Current margin: 12.8%
Projected margin: 119.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 131
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.164 | 0.757 | 59.3% | $8.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.617 | 0.694 | 7.7% | $509K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |