ML Analysis — SAGE SPECIALTY & REHAB OF LAFAYETTE
CCN 192057 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.0%, 18.6%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 71351.323 | -0.2105 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 148501.871 | +0.1859 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 15203.539 | -0.0285 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.583 | +0.0240 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.434 | -0.0218 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
60.7%
Distress Risk
$10.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
423.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P94. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.213 | +0.290 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.583 | +0.095 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 71351.323 | +0.089 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.710 | +0.066 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.025 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 31.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.5M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: 423.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 132
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.265 | 0.749 | 48.5% | $7.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.213 | 0.698 | 48.5% | $3.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 38.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P81 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P1 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |