ML Analysis — LA EXTENDED CARE OF WEST MONROE
CCN 192055 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.3%, 18.3%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 215914.524 | -0.1903 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 244230.381 | +0.1741 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.071 | +0.0376 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 106941.053 | -0.0254 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.8%
Distress Risk
$9.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
203.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P90. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.242 | +0.153 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 215914.524 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.579 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.495 | +0.028 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.395 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.8M
Current margin: -13.1%
Projected margin: 203.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 121
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.179 | 0.737 | 55.8% | $8.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.495 | 0.701 | 20.6% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.395 | 0.608 | 21.2% | $113K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P76 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |