ML Analysis — LA EXTENDED CARE OF NATCHITOCHES
CCN 192035 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside15/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.6%, 22.0%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 678738.556 | -0.1257 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 676091.333 | +0.1209 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.197 | -0.0506 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.093 | +0.0312 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 9.000 | +0.0218 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
49.8%
Distress Risk
$8.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
137.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P89. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.687 | -0.150 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.650 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 678738.556 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.138 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.438 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 9.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.4M
Current margin: 0.4%
Projected margin: 137.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 25
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.212 | 0.732 | 52.0% | $7.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.687 | 0.756 | 6.9% | $457K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.438 | 0.579 | 14.0% | $100K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P75 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |