ML Analysis — CORNERSTONE SPECIALTY WEST MONROE
CCN 192031 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.6%, 23.0%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 421790.683 | -0.1616 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 421974.537 | +0.1522 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.035 | +0.0480 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.149 | -0.0246 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 303920.410 | -0.0189 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
43.7%
Distress Risk
$8.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
50.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P91. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.721 | -0.181 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.149 | -0.098 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.752 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.017 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 421790.683 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 41.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.8M
Current margin: -0.0%
Projected margin: 50.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 118
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.231 | 0.767 | 53.5% | $8.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.149 | 0.538 | 38.9% | $787K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P69 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |