ML Analysis — BLIANT SPRCIALTY HOSPITAL
CCN 192030 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.3%, 19.3%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 125606.905 | -0.2029 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 122252.476 | +0.1891 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.355 | -0.0322 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
66.6%
Distress Risk
$13.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
526.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P99. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.355 | +0.266 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.285 | +0.223 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.602 | +0.104 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 125606.905 | +0.086 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.645 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $13.8M
Current margin: 2.7%
Projected margin: 526.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 121
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.000 | 0.737 | 73.7% | $11.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.285 | 0.701 | 41.7% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P74 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |