ML Analysis — INTENSIVE SPECIALTY HOSPITAL
CCN 192010 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.8%, 19.8%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 219281.852 | -0.1898 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 244857.544 | +0.1740 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.045 | +0.0449 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.521 | +0.0266 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 96061.674 | -0.0258 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
57.3%
Distress Risk
$12.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
10.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P90. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.207 | +0.118 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.438 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 219281.852 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.644 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.306 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 250.000 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.0M
Current margin: -11.7%
Projected margin: 10.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 32
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.149 | 0.817 | 66.8% | $10.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.438 | 0.735 | 29.6% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P41 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |