ML Analysis — KPC PROMISE HOSPITAL OF BATON ROUGE
CCN 192004 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.1%, 18.5%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 312946.074 | -0.1768 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 307132.944 | +0.1663 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.405 | -0.0382 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 183480.712 | -0.0229 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.150 | +0.0148 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
58.0%
Distress Risk
$7.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
48.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P6. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.405 | +0.315 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 312946.074 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.586 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.454 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 54.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.265 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.8M
Current margin: 1.9%
Projected margin: 48.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 88
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.331 | 0.804 | 47.3% | $7.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.586 | 0.698 | 11.2% | $736K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.454 | 0.459 | 0.6% | $11K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P44 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |