ML Analysis — TRINITY MEDICAL
CCN 191318 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.5%, 22.1%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1071166.391 | -0.0709 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1166130.783 | +0.0605 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.104 | +0.0280 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 23.000 | +0.0196 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
48.6%
Distress Risk
$7.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
23.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P36. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.021 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.649 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1071166.391 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.317 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.532 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.9M
Current margin: -8.9%
Projected margin: 23.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 125
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.329 | 0.726 | 39.6% | $5.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.532 | 0.698 | 16.6% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.317 | 0.599 | 28.3% | $815K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P72 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |