ML Analysis — ST MARTIN HOSPITAL
CCN 191302 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.8%, 26.8%]. P58 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1357155.000 | +0.0370 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1451361.440 | -0.0179 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.002 | +0.0105 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.3%
Distress Risk
$5.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
20.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P51. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.632 | -0.099 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.537 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1451361.440 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.364 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.2M
Current margin: 6.5%
Projected margin: 20.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 130
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.461 | 0.721 | 26.0% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.364 | 0.586 | 22.2% | $943K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.632 | 0.685 | 5.3% | $353K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P53 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |