ML Analysis — ACADIAN MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 190318 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.2%, 13.4%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 672053.633 | -0.1266 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 749969.041 | +0.1118 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.504 | -0.0503 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.045 | +0.0449 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.164 | -0.0230 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
62.0%
Distress Risk
$11.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
21.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P18. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.504 | +0.415 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.340 | +0.172 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.164 | -0.091 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 672053.633 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.218 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 49.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $11.0M
Current margin: -11.6%
Projected margin: 21.8%
Grade: A
Comps: 102
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.278 | 0.784 | 50.6% | $7.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.340 | 0.651 | 31.1% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.164 | 0.513 | 35.0% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |