ML Analysis — OUR LADY OF THE ANGELS HOSPITAL MC
CCN 190312 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.8%, 18.8%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2116609.472 | +0.0750 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2219275.417 | -0.0692 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.433 | -0.0417 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.583 | -0.0184 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 36.000 | +0.0176 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
60.0%
Distress Risk
$8.0M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
5.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P7. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.433 | +0.344 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.394 | +0.121 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.465 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2116609.472 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.157 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 36.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.0M
Current margin: -4.9%
Projected margin: 5.7%
Grade: B
Comps: 131
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.410 | 0.757 | 34.7% | $5.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.394 | 0.694 | 29.9% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.465 | 0.559 | 9.5% | $845K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P61 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |