ML Analysis — OCHSNER MEDICAL CENTER - KENNER LLC
CCN 190274 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.2%, 26.4%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1685299.139 | +0.0148 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Commercial % | 0.870 | +0.0116 | Higher Commercial % increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.267 | -0.0114 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.007 | +0.0099 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1734248.426 | -0.0095 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 47%Turnaround possible (47%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.2%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P35. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.648 | -0.114 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.007 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.267 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.123 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1685299.139 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 115.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: -2.9%
Projected margin: -1.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 40
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.267 | 0.411 | 14.4% | $3.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.648 | 0.685 | 3.7% | $243K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P30 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |