ML Analysis — LAKE AREA MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 190201 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.0%, 17.6%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 906530.625 | +0.0925 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 926789.829 | -0.0911 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.079 | +0.0353 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.324 | -0.0285 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.124 | -0.0275 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
57.5%
Distress Risk
$8.3M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
12.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P39. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.324 | +0.235 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.284 | +0.224 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.124 | -0.109 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.041 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 926789.830 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 88.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.3M
Current margin: 2.2%
Projected margin: 12.3%
Grade: B
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.635 | 0.838 | 20.3% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.124 | 0.429 | 30.5% | $2.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.284 | 0.634 | 35.0% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P60 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |