ML Analysis — GATEWAY REHAB AT FLORENCE
CCN 183030 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.3%, 27.3%]. P60 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 565404.900 | -0.1415 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 654037.500 | +0.1236 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.301 | -0.0287 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.524 | +0.0252 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Turnaround: 48%Turnaround possible (48%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.1%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-3.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P94. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.922 | -0.368 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.569 | +0.089 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 565404.900 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.466 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: -15.7%
Projected margin: -3.8%
Grade: B
Comps: 64
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.529 | 0.709 | 18.0% | $2.7M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P31 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |