ML Analysis — ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATION HOSP
CCN 183028 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.0%, 26.6%]. P58 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 350075.600 | -0.1716 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 334989.150 | +0.1629 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.685 | +0.0355 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 216663.228 | -0.0218 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
51.4%
Distress Risk
$4.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
39.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P80. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.685 | +0.141 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.619 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.011 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 350075.600 | +0.073 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.608 | +0.048 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.9M
Current margin: 4.3%
Projected margin: 39.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 64
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.381 | 0.709 | 32.8% | $4.9M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P28 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |