ML Analysis — PINEVILLE COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER
CCN 180154 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -35.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.8%, 16.8%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 290320.489 | -0.1799 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 394246.644 | +0.1556 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 22960.506 | -0.0282 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.079 | -0.0253 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 31%Turnaround possible (31%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
58.8%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
1.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P51. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.079 | +0.414 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 290320.489 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.036 | -0.053 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.283 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 45.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.319 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: -35.8%
Projected margin: 1.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 68
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.079 | 0.625 | 54.5% | $3.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.645 | 0.713 | 6.8% | $1.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.283 | 0.412 | 12.9% | $197K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P75 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |