ML Analysis — THE MEDICAL CENTER OF ALBANY
CCN 180106 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.6%, 20.0%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 735097.900 | -0.1178 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 824701.350 | +0.1026 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.127 | +0.0214 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.7%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
19.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P11. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.355 | +0.158 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 735097.900 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.040 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.281 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.508 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: -12.2%
Projected margin: 19.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 43
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.452 | 0.649 | 19.6% | $2.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.355 | 0.577 | 22.2% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.281 | 0.417 | 13.6% | $234K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P75 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |