ML Analysis — PAUL B. HALL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 180078 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.7%, 20.9%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 85868.486 | -0.2085 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 77056.403 | +0.1947 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.060 | +0.0408 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.091 | -0.0311 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
53.2%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
79.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P60. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.253 | +0.253 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.091 | -0.124 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 85868.486 | +0.088 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.041 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 72.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.305 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: 10.3%
Projected margin: 79.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.253 | 0.619 | 36.6% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.654 | 0.768 | 11.4% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.091 | 0.346 | 25.5% | $185K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P54 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |