ML Analysis — SAINT JOSEPH MOUNT STERLING
CCN 180064 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.2%, 24.4%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 42.000 | +0.0167 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.738 | -0.0148 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.019 | +0.0085 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1527420.071 | -0.0072 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.1%
Distress Risk
$1.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P12. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.019 | -0.070 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.491 | +0.031 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.306 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 42.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.264 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1527420.071 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.8M
Current margin: -5.4%
Projected margin: -2.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 64
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.491 | 0.644 | 15.3% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.306 | 0.412 | 10.6% | $798K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P49 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |