ML Analysis — MEADOWVIEW REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 180019 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.6%, 22.0%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 752090.520 | -0.1155 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 728374.040 | +0.1144 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0295 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 120787.798 | -0.0250 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.161 | -0.0207 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
54.4%
Distress Risk
$6.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
12.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P75. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KY distress rate: 45.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.161 | +0.338 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.186 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 752090.520 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.246 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 100.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.7M
Current margin: 3.1%
Projected margin: 12.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 44
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.161 | 0.667 | 50.6% | $3.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.186 | 0.421 | 23.6% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.748 | 0.830 | 8.2% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |