ML Analysis — KPC PROMISE HOSPITAL OF OVERLAND PK
CCN 172004 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-21.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-49.5%, 7.1%]. P19 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 278340.036 | -0.1816 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 276680.554 | +0.1701 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 77935.210 | -0.0264 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 56.000 | +0.0145 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
60.4%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
30.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P85. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.280 | +0.228 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.194 | +0.105 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 278340.036 | +0.077 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.444 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.434 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 56.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: 0.6%
Projected margin: 30.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 38
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.372 | 0.572 | 20.0% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.280 | 0.533 | 25.3% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |