ML Analysis — MITCHELL CO HOSP HEALTH SYSTEMS
CCN 171375 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.3%, 20.3%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.094 | +0.0308 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.558 | +0.0212 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 18.000 | +0.0204 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving State Peer Margin.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
44.6%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
14.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P97. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.808 | -0.262 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.826 | +0.086 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.558 | +0.084 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1524486.556 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: -7.4%
Projected margin: 14.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 104
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.169 | 0.511 | 34.2% | $5.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.558 | 0.835 | 27.7% | $889K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P61 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |