ML Analysis — ANDERSON COUNTY HOSPITAL
CCN 171316 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.9%, 11.8%]. P25 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2675824.083 | -0.1255 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2318889.250 | +0.1032 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.485 | -0.0439 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.671 | +0.0339 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.7%
Distress Risk
$2.0M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-8.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P39. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.359 | +0.155 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.671 | +0.135 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.004 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.749 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2318889.250 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 12.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.0M
Current margin: -15.4%
Projected margin: -8.1%
Grade: C
Comps: 60
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.247 | 0.334 | 8.7% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.671 | 0.822 | 15.1% | $493K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.359 | 0.393 | 3.4% | $226K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P72 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |