ML Analysis — GREAT PLAINS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY INC
CCN 171310 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-23.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -46.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-51.3%, 5.3%]. P18 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 754106.875 | -0.1152 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1100634.562 | +0.0686 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.840 | +0.0528 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 16%Low turnaround probability (16%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
62.5%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-10.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P89. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.195 | +0.307 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.840 | +0.210 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.022 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.670 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 754106.875 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -46.0%
Projected margin: -10.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 101
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.308 | 0.506 | 19.8% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.195 | 0.402 | 20.7% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |