ML Analysis — MINIMALLY INVASIVE SURGERY HOSPITAL
CCN 170199 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position7/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 21.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.1%, 9.5%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2063998.714 | +0.0677 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.946 | -0.0564 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.037 | -0.0277 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 75935.765 | -0.0264 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
61.3%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
40.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P95. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.037 | +0.453 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.160 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2063998.714 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.479 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 7.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.335 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: 21.1%
Projected margin: 40.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 11
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.037 | 0.288 | 25.1% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.335 | 0.962 | 62.6% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 35.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.2% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |